Short-Term and Long-Term Predictions: Is the Green Crab Carcinus maenas a Threat to Antarctica and Southern South America under a Climate-Change Scenario?

Non-native species can have profound implications on the survival of native ones. This is especially true for some invasive crabs, such as green crab Carcinus maenas, a to Northern Hemisphere that has been introduced into southern Argentina, from where it could expand through Chile, and Antarctic Peninsula. Hence, there interest in forecasting changes C. maenas habitat suitability time predict if potential future invasions might occur. Here, by using Species Distribution Model (SDM) approach, we estimated along South America Peninsula under two climate-change scenarios. Our results reveal current conditions, null very restricted Argentina Chile. Habitat remained short-term (30 years) long-term (80 years), despite scenario considered. Surprisingly, when considering coast Chile decreased became nil currently occupied locations. Thus, SDM suggest climate change negative effect leading local extinctions.